ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF POPULATION AND CULTIVATED ECOSYSTEMS ON THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE LAKE VICTORIA BASIN: A REVIEW IN RELATION TO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT

Abstract

The Lake Victoria Basin spreads over 5 countries: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. It has experienced a rapid growth in population and environmental degradation in the last 60 years. The study aimed to assess the major environmental impacts of the basin population especially as expressed in the cultivated ecosystems of the basin with respect to future contribution to the quantity and quality of water in the basin as it was part of a preliminary study leading to the formulation of a water resource management plan for the LVB. It involved mainly document review and field observations. Population estimation was based on 2012 estimated or reported district population, proportioning for the part of the district within the LVB.  The basin population was estimated to be 40.4 million as of 2012, and projected to reach 88.8 by 2040 with constant growth rate; and population density was estimated to be 204 cap/km² in 2012 and projected to reach 449 cap/km² with constant growth rate by 2040. The population was found to be predominantly young, with people 14 years and younger accounting for 45% of the total. Three types of cultivated ecosystems were recognized: Mixed lowland smallholder subsistence rainfed cultivated systems, Mixed highland smallholder cultivated systems and Larger scale cultivated systems, all of which, together, covered about 13.9 million ha, or 70% of the terrestrial area of the basin. Smallholder subsistence rainfed system was found to be predominant, accounting for nearly 75% of the cultivated ecosystem. The study concluded that poverty was the defining driver of ecosystem degradation, and that reducing it requires a global integrated approach targeting poverty. It is clear that any effort to reduce ecosystems degradation may be nullified in the medium-term if it is not accompanied by a reduction in the growth of the population using agricultural land. Without this the quality of the basin’s waters and livelihoods will be in jeopardy.